UOTM JIM CALLIS Interview

A Q & A WITH JIM CALLIS

By Drew "SouthernBoSox" Angel July 31,2006

Looking for information or commentary on baseball's next wave of future stars? Well, "Baseball America" delivers some of the most in-depth analysis on the minor league's best prospects as well as taking early looks at the top high school and college players entering the amateur draft each year.

With that in mind, we are thrilled to have the Executive Editor of "Baseball America", Jim Callis join us for some Q & A.

   Angel: First off, Why baseball? What got you interested in this crazy game?

   Callis: I remember being in third grade in 1976, and my friend Geoff Rubin gave me a bunch of baseball cards. I got hooked. My family spent our summers vacationing in Cape Cod, so I started following the Red Sox. Little did I realize what I was in for.

   Angel: What is your favorite baseball memory?

   Callis: There are a bunch, but one that stands out the most is probably covering Georgia winning the 1990 College World Series. It wasn't a great team from a talent standpoint, as only Dave Fleming reached the majors, but it gelled at the right time. I graduated from Georgia in December 1988, so I had gone to school with most of the players on the team. I can still talk forever about how Mike Rebhan beat Mike Mussina and Stanford twice, then opted not to play pro ball because he already had a wife and kids. From a pro standpoint, attending the first three games of the 2004 World Series (including Game Three with my oldest son) was a highlight. I also was on hand for the first Olympics where baseball was a full-medal sport in 1992. I've been very fortunate.

   Angel: Who is your ALL TIME favorite player, prospect, and manager?

   Callis: I don't think you have favorites as much as you did when you were a kid, and when I was a kid my favorite was Carl Yastrzemski. Favorite prospect? I don't think I root for prospects like I rooted for players when I was a kid. Let's just say I'm happy to see Jonathan Papelbon doing well, as I think I touted him a little more than most people the last couple of years. The best manager I can remember would be Earl Weaver, and he was fun to watch when he went ballistic, too.

   Angel: How did you come to work with Baseball America.

   Callis: I inquired about a yearlong internship BA had in 1988, but it wasn't worth delaying my graduation for a year. Then they decided to have a summer internship to work on a draft-book project, and I got that. By the end of the summer, I had lined up a full-time job for after when I graduated in December. I've been there almost ever since. I worked for STATS, Inc. when my family moved to the Chicago area in mid-1997, and returned to BA in mid-2000.

   Angel: What influenced your views on scouting?

   Callis: Just to clarify, I don't consider myself a scout. I evaluate players for BA, but I wouldn't call it scouting. To get to your question, I think just experience over the matter of time. Over a longer period of years, it becomes more obvious as to which scouts know their stuff more than others, and their wisdom sinks in more. Over a longer period, you also have the benefit of seeing which players pan out and why.

   Angel: Scouts vs. Stats, everyone has a side, whats yours and why?

   Callis: I wouldn't say I have a side. I've said this many times: I think both are important and it's all a blend. Tools and performance matter. If you don't have both, your chances for success are limited. I think some people can get overly zealous about stats at the lower levels of pro ball and in amateur ball, forgetting that those players still have a lot of development ahead of them. At the same time, if a wondrous athlete has struggled for a number of years and/or isn't getting it done at the higher levels, that's a bad omen.

   Angel: Do you general trust defensive metrics such as FRAA?

   Callis: I look at them, but I wouldn't say I trust them completely. There's too much variance with the same player from year to year, and that inconsistency bothers me. I'll look at the wide variety of defensive metrics, but I can't say I'm completely sold on any of them.

   Angel: Did Billy Beane single handedly change the baseball draft?

   Callis: Sigh. "Moneyball" is a fascinating read, but most of the stuff about the draft is garbage. The A's didn't revolutionize anything. If you look at the number of first-round picks they had that year (seven), they didn't do a great job or a poor job--they were decidedly average. And if you look at the A's drafts from 2002 forward, they're very middle of the pack. Some successes and a lot of misses, just like everyone else. If you ignore the high school crop, you're ignoring an awful lot of talent and an awful lot of quality players. Even the A's have changed their approach in the last couple of years.

   Angel: Heres a tough one from a poster: When Japan's Matsuzaka posts - who do you see as top bidders for his service. And how do you think his talent (and wear and tear) should translate into MLB?

   Callis: From what we've seen in the Olympics and World Baseball Classic, I would think he'd be a star over here. Most (but not all) of the players who were stars in Japan and came over here have been stars in the majors. He's going to cost a ton of money, so I think you'll see the usual suspects after him: Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, Dodgers.

   Angel: Is the AL really as dominate as it seems?

   Callis: I do think the AL is clearly better than the NL right now. But I think that's just cyclical and will change in the near future.

   Angel: Why aren't we using balanced schedules? Is it just to simple?

   Callis: That would be the fairest system with wild cards involved. I don't know why MLB doesn't do this.

   Angel: What team has a farm system that best suits their upcoming needs?

   Callis: The Angels and Dodgers have promoted a lot of their talent this year, and though they have another wave coming, I think the Diamondbacks system ranks as the best right now. They have several talented hitters coming up, and they have drafted several pitchers the last couple of years to strengthen themselves in that regard.

   Angel: What is the true state of the Yankee farm system.

   Callis: It's middle of the pack, which is better than it has been. Most of the talent is concentrated in the lower levels, which means: 1) it's not close to helping at the big league level; 2) it's not as attractive as trade bait; and 3) attrition will take a toll. Philip Hughes and Jose Tabata are two of the best prospects in the minors right now, but there's a dropoff after that.

   Alright lets get some Red Sox questions in.

   Angel: Who do you think was the Red Sox best and worst draft pick?

   Callis: Actually, there are some mixed reports on Jason Place and Daniel Bard, the top two choices. Some teams really like them, while others are lukewarm. I like Kris Johnson, a supplemental first-rounder, better than either for where they were drafted, and third-rounder Bryce Cox could be a steal. He looked great when I saw him first-hand at the College World Series. I'm not sure how you'd characterize a "worst pick" this early.

   Angel: With Lester, Hansen, Delcarmen all graduating to the Big Leagues who are your top 10 Red Sox prospects in order?

   Callis: Too early to say . . . I really haven't thought about this in great depth at this point. I'm focusing on the Midwest League and the Cape Cod League at the moment. Assuming the guys in the majors all play enough to lose their prospect status, and that the Red Sox sign all of their draft picks in the first 10 rounds, the top five off the top of my head would be Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Michael Bowden, Jason Place and Daniel Bard.

   Angel: Theo tells us Wily Mo is better in CF then RF. Where do you see him sticking with sox?

   Callis: As more of a role player/good fourth outfielder than as a true regular. He has a high ceiling but he also has some holes in his game.

   Angel: Papelbon has been as lights-out as it gets. Do you think he should be moved back into the rotation in 2007?

   Callis: Initially, yes, because I think a good starter is worth a lot more than a good closer. But if Papelbon keeps this up all year and looks like a great closer, it's so hard to find those that I'd keep him in the bullpen, even with Craig Hansen around. Maybe if Papelbon looks a little more mortal and Hansen is lights out as a setup guy in 2007, I'd think about Papelbon back in the rotation for 2008.

   Angel: Bowden and Buchholtz, the next Papelbon and Lester?

   Callis: I like Michael Bowden and Clay Buchholz a lot, but they aren't in the Papelbon/Lester class yet. They're solid pitching prospects, while Papelbon and Lester were among the very best in the game entering 2006.

    Angel: How does Jason Place compare to other teams number one pick?

   Callis: He obviously went late in the first round, so talent wise he doesn't stack up to the top of the draft. But he's a very good all-around athlete with a chance to be a very good player if he hits. That said, some clubs believe in the bat while others really don't like his swing.

   Angel: What the hell is up with Kyle Jackson?

   Callis: He's leveling off in Double-A somewhat now. Jackson always has had a good arm. Sometimes guys have career years in the minors, and Wilmington is also a great place to pitch.

   Angel: Mark Wagner is hitting well. Luis Exposito, aka X-Man, looks like he was a steal in last years draft as well. How do you view these two catchers and their future with the Red Sox.

   Callis: Too early to get overly excited about either. Both have potential and are having good years, but they're very far away.

   Angel: Zach Deages, this years Kevin Youkilis?

   Callis: Again, too early to go off the deep end. Youkilis' performance in the New York-Penn League was a lot more impressive, and Daeges is going to have to be a corner infielder. I like Daeges' bat, but give him some time.

   Angel: Is Jacoby Ellsbury lack of SLG% concerning?

   Callis: Not really. I think he has more pop than he has shown, but it's not a crucial part of his game. He can drive the ball on occasion and I think he'll do it more often as he gains more experience. Wilmington isn't a good hitter's park either.

   Angel: What is viewed better by "experts", Montero for 2.2 million or Tejeda and Beltre for under 1.5 million?

   Callis: All three guys were highly touted in international circles. With any 16-year-old foreign signee, however, they're so far away that they're all projection. I don't think there's any consensus that either the Yankees or the Red Sox outmaneuvered the other.

   Angel: Dustin Pedrioa is a great argument for Scouts and Stat geeks. Whats your view on him? Bust, Decent player, All-star, Cures Cancer?

   Callis: Decent player. He's good but probably as good as he's going to get. I think you're looking at a more talented David Eckstein.

   Angel: Could a David Murphy/ Wily Mo Pena platoon be in our future?

   Callis: Possibly. If Trot Nixon isn't brought back, I could see the Red Sox winding up with that platoon in right field. But I think they also might be willing to spend the money to have a better option.

   Angel: What are your views on Caleb Clay and Kris Johnson?

   Callis: Two very good arms, very sound supplemental draft picks. I really like Johnson, and he could have gone quite high in the 2007 draft had he returned to Wichita State and put another year between him and Tommy John surgery. They're comparable to the Buchholz and Bowden supplemental first-round picks of a year ago.

   Angel: Scouts love Aaron Bates power, but his college stats power-wise are just decent. He was great in Cape Cod and is hitting well in Lowell. Is he just better with wood bats?

   Callis: Some guys are better with wood bats, so maybe that's the case. College position players were not the strength of the 2006 draft as a whole, and Bates could be a nice pick for Boston.

   Angel: Is David Pauley a legit prospect?

   Callis: Sure, but not as a frontline guy. He could be a No. 4 or 5 starter, or a middle reliever. He has some aptitude but no standout pitch or pitches.

   Angel: Does Mike Rozier just not care about baseball?

   Callis: I'm not sure how to answer that one. I would think he does. He wasn't in great shape for his first spring training in 2005, but I think it's easier to attribute that to immaturity in a 19-year-old than a lack of passion for the game.

   Angel: Heres a good on to end on. Who wins a fight between Baseball America staff and Baseball Prospectus staff? Be honest.

   Callis: We don't fight or disagree as much as people might think. We have a number of people who believe in the importance of stats, and they have a number of people who understand that stats aren't the be-all and end-all. The way I'd put it is I think we're the both the best source around for what we're mainly known for (BA for player development, BP for statistical evaluation) but we're not one-trick ponies.

****

We'd like to thank Jim for taking time out of his busy schedule to stop by and encourage everyone to check out "Baseball America" on the web.